When the Buffalo Bills hit the field for the AFC Championship Game at Arrowhead Stadium Sunday evening, a familiar foe will again do everything possible to frustrate Buffalo’s defense. At first blush, that someone who comes to mind is quarterback Patrick Mahomes.
But there’s perhaps a bigger reason for the Bills to remain most weary about none other than tight end Travis Kelce. That’s true even if his numbers appeared to be declining this season.
From a 30,000-foot view, Kelce appears nearer the end of his Hall of Fame career than he does its beginning. By and large, during the 2024 regular season it looked like the Kansas City Chiefs tight end may have tried to squeeze a year too much out of his NFL career.
Kelce finished with the fewest receiving yards of his career. Sure, 97 catches for 823 yards isn’t something to turn your nose up at. In fact, those are pretty good numbers for a tight end.
While Kelce’s receptions didn’t drop, the 12-year veteran yardage total wasn’t that low since he became a starter in 2014. In fact, Kelce had consistently finished over 1,000 yards receiving since 2016 — the year before quarterback Patrick Mahomes started throwing him the football. That is, until last season.
In 2023, Kelce failed to reach the 1,000-yard mark, falling 16 yards short. He also only had 93 receptions, which was his lowest total since Mahomes’ rookie season.
Now, a year later he catches 97 footballs, but for greater than 100 less yards. The biggest indicator that something might have changed — that maybe Kelce was slowing down and it wasn’t just a schematic issue — is that his yards-per-catch number during the 2024 season was a career low.
Kelce had consistently maintained over 12 yards per catch in his career. Yet in 2023, that number dropped to 10.6. As for this season — just 8.5 yards per catch for the veteran tight end.
Despite all this, maybe Travis Kelce was just saving his best for last. After all, the Chiefs’ starters only lost one game all season. You may remember that came when the Bills beat them back in Week 11 to end their bid for a perfect season.
Playoff Kelce is an entirely different beast.
In last week’s divisional playoff game, Kelce caught seven passes for 117 yards and a touchdown in a 23-14 win over the Houston Texans. Kelce’s yards per catch last week? A superb Kelce-like 16.7 ypc. The Texans had no answer for the Chiefs’ nightmare of a tight end.
Kelce playing his best in the postseason isn’t anything new. Just last season, Kelce had 32 catches for 355 yards and three touchdowns across the Chiefs’ four postseason games — despite a down regular-season campaign.
During KC’s divisional round game last season at Highmark Stadium, Kelce was held to his lowest catch total (5) of the playoffs, but he scored twice as the Bills fell 27-24.
On Sunday, defensive coordinator Bobby Babich will be tasked with finding a way to slow Kelce down to be more in line with his regular season numbers. The goal for Buffalo’s defense may be to make Matt Nagy’s offense find another way to win.
That’s not an easy task as it appears Kelce isn’t intent on fading into the sideline. Instead, he’s bound to be looking for all the open space on the gridiron that the Bills are willing (or forced) to give him.
